We all typically associate max pain with holding an asset to 0.
I have such a gut feeling that this time max pain is the majority are going to be sidelined for the next move up.
I don’t think I’ve seen the timeline like this in 5 years, Nobody is buying anything, everyone has either been completely wiped, or derisking to preserve what they have left.
Realistically, we’re trading above the monthly open. We’ve just had the biggest liquidation event in cryptos history. This is typically followed by a hated rally with people watching it. We’re heading into the most bullish quarter for the market, with some of the most scared investors the market has seen.
There is only two ways I see this plays out.
1. Markets open and there is a cascade of late sellers derisking with the tariff news announced after market close. Feel the drawdown will not even be comparable to the last 24 hours, followed by a relief rally.
2. We grab for a few more days and Trump lifts the tarrifs. I believe this will happen either way, followed by a very quick bounce back. The little guy won’t catch the move, or will wait for another opportunity to get in which won’t come and watch it run after selling the lows to protect capital.
Option 2 is how I think it’ll play out, and that is what max pain will look like. People showing up everyday through the entire bear, making bits over the last few months to lose it all within 24 hours, then watch everything rally back up watching from afar.
Not trying to give you hopium, nor am I trying to catch a knife.
This is just my outlook, and I have been a buyer over the last 24 hours in some large caps with size that I see doing well in the longer term. This is not me revenge trading to make it back quick, I’ve tripled my positions in $TAO and $AVAX bringing my entries way down.
Also, managed to grab quite a few more microcaps (the ones I continuously talk about) at which I believe the absolute lows, with some slingshots set on some of my favourite NFT collections which have a ton of outstanding loans near liquidation prices.
Either way, I hope you’re all holding up okay.
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