10h ago
Let me share my views on the current market situation. My current perspective is cautiously bullish; I am no longer as optimistic about this Q4 as I was before. This is not necessarily correct, just for reference. First, there are many reasons for both bullish and bearish sentiments. My reasons for being optimistic about Q4 haven't changed, but now there are many more reasons to be bearish. Let's list both sides for now. Bullish: - Interest rate cut cycle - Trump is still in office - Ethereum has not yet passed the staking ETF - A bunch of RWA stablecoins have not yet scaled after the genius bill was passed - Leverage has been cleared - There are potential tracks like ICM and Chinese coins on-chain Bearish: - The black swan events causing hidden risks have not yet manifested. Last time with Luna, it took several months for the problems to slowly emerge, indicating a possibility of systemic risk. - Gold is draining liquidity, and the exchange rate may continue to absorb it; this time could be a major counterattack against digital gold. - Market makers are suffering significant losses, and there is clearly insufficient liquidity in the market. Bitcoin often experiences sharp price movements, not to mention other altcoins. - Altcoin project teams are starting to act maliciously; just yesterday, there were two consecutive SLERF and RVV transactions, which are typically seen only in bear markets. In summary, the idea of blindly being bullish on Q4 can no longer exist; it must be approached with more caution. My personal strategy is to reduce my holdings in mainstream coins, switch to stablecoin mining, and withdraw more funds. I haven't touched the on-chain meme coins for now; in fact, the on-chain market has been in a bear phase for a long time since Trump issued coins, and it has just started to recover recently. If there are issues in the secondary market, more funds may return to the on-chain space. I will reduce my holdings again when the on-chain sentiment turns negative.
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